Colleagues and scholars from coast to coast, across Bass Strait and all the ships at sea.
Dateline: Australia, Federal Politics, March 2015.
This is how the polling numbers stand as at the end of March 2015.
The key points are:
The Coalition has suffered a 6.2% primary vote swing and a 6.5% two party preferred swing since the 2013 election. If replicated in an election this would result in a loss of about 29 seats, placing the Coalition on 62 seats (which includes winning back Fairfax) the ALP on 84 seats, 3 Independents (Indi, Denison and Kennedy) and 1 Green (Melbourne).
Since the 2013 election the Coalition has not polled above its two party preferred election result of 53.5%, and has trailed the ALP since December 2013 by an average of 6 points (53% to 47%).
Primary Votes as at March 2015 %
|
Party
|
Voting intention
|
2013 election
|
Change
|
|
Coalition
|
39.4
|
45.6
|
(-6.2)
|
|
ALP
|
38.9
|
33.4
|
+5.5
|
|
Greens
|
10.9
|
8.7
|
+2.2
|
|
Others
|
10.8
|
12.3
|
(-1.5)
|
Two Party Preferred as at March 2015 %
|
Party
|
Voting intention
|
2013 election
|
Change
|
|
Coalition
|
47.0
|
53.5
|
(-6.5)
|
|
ALP
|
53.0
|
46.5
|
+6.5
|
Psephological regards.
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