The School of Athens

The School of Athens
The School of Athens by Raphael (click on picture to view short documentary from Columbia University)

Wednesday, 27 September 2017

What's the likely vote on same-sex marriage?

Fellow citizens,

While we won't know what the results from the same-sex marriage survey will be until November 15, there is enough data for us to make an estimate of what the likely result will be.

Women will be the key to this outcome, as I wrote on September 12 in a piece titled "On equal marriage sisters are doin' it for themselves...and everyone else"





Since August 22, Essential Research has published four reports on same-sex marriage and has found the support from women in favour as follows:

65%, 65%, 62%, 63% (average = 64%)

Whereas the support from men in favour was as follows:

48%, 52%, 47%, 52% (average = 50%)


As to the intention to vote, Essential Research published three reports prior to and just as the postal surveys had started to be mailed out and found that the percentage of women who said they would "definitely vote" as:

67%, 66%, 64% (average = 66%)

Whereas the percentage of men who said they would "definitely vote" as:

59%, 58%, 55% (average = 58%)

This ratio of the intended participation of women to men is consistent with the findings of Ipsos Research (published on September 12) which found 72% of women said they would "definitely return their survey form", as opposed to 59% of men.


Since the same-sex survey has been in full operation, Essential Research has found that 41% of women have reported that they have "already voted" as opposed to only 30% of men, illustrating that women are doing what they said they would do...as are the men.


What does this tell us?

That the gender most in favour of same-sex marriage is also the gender most likely to vote and therefore unless something quite extraordinary and unexpected occurs the same-sex marriage survey will be carried.


And the vote?

Using the estimates from Essential Research, if 64% of women and 50% of men vote YES, and 36% of women and 50% of men vote NO, then the total vote for YES would equal 57% and the vote for NO would equal 43%.


And then the difference in participation changes the result slightly.

Again using the estimates from Essential Research, if 66% of women and 58% of men participate in the survey, then the overall vote in favour of YES would increase to 58% and the vote in favour of NO would decrease to 42%.


Nothing, of course, is certain. However, there is enough recent and current evidence of intent and action from the women (and men) of Australia to lead me to conclude that the same-sex marriage survey will be carried comfortably.


 


Monday, 25 September 2017

An address to the nation by Prime Minister, Malcolm Turnbull



Good evening my fellow citizens.

By now you should have received your ballot papers to participate in the same-sex marriage survey conducted by the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

I encourage you to participate in this survey to make sure your voice is heard.

I also encourage you to vote YES.

And the reason is very simple: Because it is fair.

In the nation of the 'fair go' it is not fair for one group of Australians not to enjoy the same rights as another group of Australians - and those rights are: to have the right, under law, to marry the person that they love.

I know in my case, I would have found it intolerable not to have been allowed by law to have married my wife, Lucy, 37 years ago.

I would have seen it as a grave injustice.

Yet that injustice exists now for all same-sex Australians who want to get married.

We now have the opportunity to redress this injustice.

The survey asks one simple question: Should the law be changed to allow same-sex couples to marry?

A YES vote from the Australian public will see the Government facilitate the introduction of a private members bill to legalise same-sex marriage and we will pass that bill into law before the end of this year.


Now you would have heard a number of arguments from those who are opposing same-sex marriage.

Unfortunately, many of those arguments are without any foundation and, in any event, are irrelevant to the question you are being asked.

As your Prime Minister, I feel it is my duty to deal with these falsehoods being expressed so you know the facts.

First, you have been told that religious freedoms will be adversely affected - this is false. 24 nations have legalised same-sex marriage and there has been no change to religious freedoms in those countries, and it will be the same case here in Australia.

Second, you have been told that freedom of speech will be curbed - this is false. There will be no change to your ability to express your opinions freely and with passion within the laws as they currently exist.

Third, you have been told that the children of same-sex couples are worse off than children of heterosexual couples - this is false. The Australian Medical Association and the Australian Psychologists Society have stated that there is no evidence to support that proposition. The well being of children is determined by the love of their parents not their gender.

Fourth, you have been told that schools will be compelled to introduce a whole range of initiatives that will adversely affect your children's education - this is false. There will be no interference in how schools implement their education curriculums as a result of legalising same-sex marriage in Australia.


Once again, I state, the only question you are being asked to express an opinion on is: Should the law be changed to allow same-sex couples to marry?

My fellow citizens, I encourage you to participate in the survey and I encourage you to vote YES and I do so because it is fair.

Good evening and thank you for your attention.


END OF ADDRESS.


It is my view that Malcolm Turnbull needs to make such an address right now.

He will earn the respect of the nation and it might just save his Prime Ministership.

Over to you, brother.




Friday, 22 September 2017

John Howard and Tony Abbott foul our democratic nest

Fellow citizens,

Many important pieces covering important issues have been written recently.

One of the most important, in my view, was "Coalition will not be mired in Abbott's white noise" by Niki Savva, September 21, 2017, The Australian.


"Observing politics lately has been like watching a wildlife documentary on the elders of the species eating their young. All the serving and former MPs, including a respected former prime minister, telling people the government can’t be trusted to deliver — in this case legislation that both enables same-sex couples to marry and those who oppose them to freely practise their religious beliefs — helps nobody and damages everyone.
It is no wonder voters lose faith in governments to do their job and turn to those who market themselves as outsiders — the Hansons, the Trumps, the PUPs.

Tony Abbott, expert in these matters, started it, John Howard provided the big bang and, in case anyone missed the point, Matt Canavan (relishing a little too much his freedom from cabinet solidarity) said it explicitly at the weekend: trust me when I say you can’t trust me because I am a politician. It is cynical, opportunistic and destructive of the body politic."
For Howard and Abbott to devalue the profession that has given them so much in life - especially the privilege of holding the highest office in Australia - is a disgrace.

They should be condemned for it. 



And for what?

To win an argument over marriage equality.

Marriage equality will happen. This year, next year, the year after, but it will happen. That is certain.

The repair to the damage of the standing of politicians and effectively the working of our democracy is not certain.

Surely they must understand this.

Abbott, of course, has form on this.

Amanda Vanstone wrote of it "For the record, I'll be voting 'Yes'" August 13, 2017, The Sydney Morning Herald.


"It's just an opinion but it is my view that Abbott has done more than any other politician to trash the standing of politics and politicians. He's had a really good education and been given every opportunity by his party. We expected more. We got less.

Remember, this is the guy who, as a politician, ran the argument "Don't trust the politicians" in the republic referendum debate. People on all sides were amazed at such a blatant undermining of the institution of parliament. When you undermine parliament, you undermine democracy. What kind of mind enters parliament and then trashes it for the sake of one debate?"

Howard mentioned in his joint conversation with Bob Hawke recently, hosted by Annabel Crabb, that he would like to see reform of Section 128 of The Australian Constitution. 



That's the section that deals with constitutional amendments:
"The Commonwealth Parliament initiates constitutional amendments. Section 128 of the Australian Constitution requires that a proposal to amend the Constitution must first take the form of a Bill submitted to the Commonwealth Parliament. Between two and six months after it leaves the Parliament, the proposal 'shall be submitted' in a referendum to the voters in the various States and Territories.

For an amendment to be ratified, the so-called 'double majority' is required. There must be a majority of voters saying YES in a majority of the States (i.e. at least four of the six), but there must also be a nation-wide affirmative vote. Territory votes are included in the national total, but not in any State figure (for the wording of s. 128 see Appendix)." [The Politics of Constitutional Amendments APH Library].
Howard is correct. The Constitution does need reform, as I have written before

However, what chance do you think there is that the Australian people will give any consent to reducing the power they hold over changing the Constitution (and quite likely ceding some of that power to politicians) when two former prime ministers - conservative prime ministers - tell them that you can't trust politicians?

At least Howard's ambitions in asking for trust are lofty, as they extend to the ideal of changing The Australian Constitution.


 
Abbott's ambitions, for the moment, merely extend to asking Australians to believe every word of his account of the alleged 'Head butt in Hobart'.





Wednesday, 20 September 2017

Five excellent pieces on equal marriage

Fellow citizens,

There have been some excellent pieces published recently about equal marriage or alternatively, to keep those who are politically correct satisfied, same sex marriage.



If you haven't had a chance to be across these pieces, I have collected a few here for you to read.

Yes, they are all in favour of supporting equal marriage.

Try as I might, I have yet to find a lucid argument against equal marriage.

All I hear - all I've ever heard from those opposing equal marriage - is that marriage is between a man and a woman.

That's not an argument, that's an opinion. And a weak one at that. But at least it's honest.

All the rest about religious freedoms, free speech, political correctness, the effect on the raising of children and the corruption of education are completely dishonest or alternatively, to keep those who are politically correct satisfied, a load of old codswallop.




In any event, they are not relevant to the question being asked - with all due respect (or undue respect, as the case may be). 

Now to the pieces:

"The ambition my brother abandoned because he was gay - why a 'yes' vote matters" 
by David Kirby (brother of Michael Kirby) 
What rational objection could there be to such a marriage? What business is it of others? How would it in any way jeopardise the union that may exist between others?

The suggestion by Tony Abbott that such marriages amount to "such huge change" that it "would shake society's foundations" is absurd. The same change has been adopted in 24 other countries, with a total population of 760 million people. The gruesome changes predicted have not materialised. Such fears are a debating trick, aimed at diverting attention from the simple proposition that to deny the facility of civil marriage to a minority in our community is unfair. It is an injustice that must be rectified. Gays have suffered enough. It is definitely past time to turn the page.

"Where's the biff? Free speech has won every round in the marriage equality debate" 
by David Marr
However they dress up their worries in the rhetoric of freedom, the great complaint of the naysayers is having to campaign at all. A faith that once faced lions is indignant about being challenged.
“We’re under assault,” cries Cory Bernardi but offers no proof of rough treatment. Sure, the contest has been a bit too willing at times but where’s the biff? Where are the martyrs? Who has actually been silenced?

Free speech has won every round that matters in this contest.

"'Yes' vote won't affect religious freedom - even the freedom to discriminate" 
by Jane Caro
Not only can anyone remain opposed to same-sex marriage regardless of the result of the non-binding (there's a clue in that, guys) postal survey, they can continue to speak against it and can certainly think whatever mutinous thoughts they like, and will still be able to even if the Marriage Act is changed. Indeed, if they belong to, run, are employed by or represent a religious organisation, they will continue to be able to discriminate willy-nilly.

"F*** you, I'm done with being respectful" by Laurence Barber (language warning)
For pretty much our entire lives, we’re forced to think about the version of ourselves we put across in public.

As LGBTQIA people, we’re burdened by a supposed need to modulate our behaviour, our speech, our looks. Don’t dress too queer. Stay in the closet at work. Better not hold hands on this street, just in case.

We’re not the only ones who have to do this. Women, people of colour, people with disabilities, and more – many of whom are also queer – suffer the same societal pressures.
Unfortunately, this is the reality we must contend with: one in which we battle to be seen as human so we can express ourselves and live authentically.

The marriage equality debate has delivered a concentrated assault on our collective personhood, but in more insidious forms than ever before.

"Gay people are anything but spineless, Mr Canavan" by Ernesto Montoto
Dear Matthew "grow a spine" Canavan,
I'd like to share my story with you and hope that maybe you'll have some level of empathy to understand the difficulties some of us face in life.

I am a 42-year-old man, who is in a loving 19-year relationship. I'd like to start my life story with you from when I was a young child. I was born in 1975. Only two years prior (1973) homosexuality was removed from the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual (DSM). Homosexuality may have been depathologised in 1973, but the majority of society continued to treat homosexuals as perverse and sick individuals.

 Amor omnia vincit, veritas omnia vincit. 

 

Thursday, 14 September 2017

Pain, hurt, anger and equal marriage

Fellow citizens,

There is a great deal of pain and hurt being so unnecessarily revisited and reawakened within the LGBTIQ community as a result of this postal survey.

In many cases the trauma of a lifetime long experience of discrimination and vilification that many would've hoped was 'well behind them' is being brought back so quickly and so cruelly.



Make no mistake, two men need to be condemned for this: Tony Abbott for proposing the original ridiculous plebiscite concept and Malcolm Turnbull for continuing with the dopey concept culminating in the farce that is the postal survey.

This should always have been a vote in Parliament.

The LGBTIQ community warned of the problems the 'vote' would bring, but their warnings were ignored.

If you think I am overstating the hurt being revisited have a look at these comments on the hashtag on Twitter #Theygettovote where people are telling of their shocking experiences.

I've listed a few examples below:

my extended family found out i liked girls and called me a genetic deformity and kicked me out of the house #TheyGetToVote

"As soon as you're 18, I'm kicking you the f*** out, Poofta." - My Father. #TheyGetToVote

A 20 yo man found bloody & beaten & unconscious outside my apartment building after being beaten to a pulp by homophobes & #TheyGetToVote

I recall a random stranger on a tram proudly telling me "I put one of you in hospital last week." #theygettovote

First & only time I held another boys hand in public I got bashed by a group of guys only the  security guard stopped them) #TheyGetToVote

#Theygettovote i had rocks thrown at me, knocked down beaten and pissed on. Had a dead rat put in my school bag

Having drinks poured on me in disgust the first time I made out with a boy in a club #TheyGetToVote

I could leave hundreds of tweets on #TheyGetToVote, but it's too painful to relive the past homophobic attacks. No homophobia huh Lyle??

last week i heard a gaggle of middle-aged women lecturing a lesbian couple on 'why they should be embarrassed in public' #TheyGetToVote

Coming out of a gay bar, some guy came past me on his bike, spat at me and yelled 'DYKE'. #TheyGetToVote

I held a boys hand at school and was pelted with rocks then they threw me in the urinal. Teacher told me to, "be more aware." #TheyGetToVote

Head shoved into toilet wall, called a faggot and stalked by threatening school bullies who wanted to beat my brains in. #TheyGetToVote

Mardi Gras morning, I see car stop on oxford street-4 men jump out. Push a gay to the ground, break his teeth. They drive off #TheyGetToVote

#TheyGetToVote All those who hid the details of Dr George Duncan's drowning in the River Torrens for so many years

My classmate who wrote "Faggots deserve death" after I was outed in High School #TheyGetToVote

My ex was afraid to hold hands in our neighbourhood because he'd previously been assaulted for being gay. #TheyGetToVote

At 14 I came out to close friends, but the first guy I ever came out to rounded up his mates to bash me on the street #TheyGetToVote


Stories that are real and heartbreaking. This tweet sums up the feeling:

Today 'no' voters are saying the #TheyGetToVote stories are invented. Show any gay person the feed, watch the clouds form in their eyes.

And, yes, many in the LGBTIQ community are angry. Very angry about it all.

Can you blame them?

They are so deeply hurt, not only by what has happened to them their whole lives just for being who they are, but because their government and their leaders have let them down so terribly badly.

The government is so callous, so lacking in empathy, so lacking in compassion, that it deems it appropriate for the entire Australian adult population to "have their say" on whether an already marginalised section of our community should have equal rights under the law.

Turnbull and Abbott read those tweets and hang your heads in shame. 




"Only those who have known discrimination truly know its evil." Noel Pearson.

Wednesday, 13 September 2017

Mr Turnbull! Tear down this wall!

Fellow citizens,

One of the biggest stupidities I have seen in recent years is the erecting of a fortress around our Federal Parliament. Yes, it is OUR Federal Parliament.

Have a look at these photos of this bloody stupid thing.







In November 2015, Prime Minister Turnbull said in Parliament:

"The terrorists want us to bend to their will, to be frightened, to change the way we go about our lives, to abandon our values."

"If we do that, they win and they will not win, we will not let them win."

So much for not letting the terrorists win.

Why just stop at a wall? Why not rebuild all of Parliament House underground like Winston Churchill's War Cabinet bunker?



 There was a time when we criticised nations that used walls to protect themselves.



"As a free man, I take pride in the words: Ich bin ein Canberran!"


"Mr Turnbull! Tear down this wall!"

Tuesday, 12 September 2017

On equal marriage, sisters are doin' it for themselves...and everyone else

Fellow citizens,

Of all the research data that has been published regarding same sex marriage there are two pieces that I believe matter the most, and it concerns women.



First: Essential Media has found over July and August that about two-thirds of women "support changing the law to allow same-sex couples to marry" as opposed to only about one half of men.

Second: Ipsos found in research published today that about 7 in 10 women will "definitely return their survey form" as opposed to about only 6 in 10 men.

These figures are crucial.

If women do participate in the proportion that the Ipsos poll reported, and there is no reason to doubt that they will, then the same sex marriage postal survey will find in favour of "changing the law to allow same sex couples to marry".

That is clear.



The question now is why such a clear gender discrepancy?

These are my speculations (and they are just speculations and generalisations based on anecdotal evidence).



Women are less threatened by gays, female or male, than many men and so much less likely to be homophobic.

Women who are mothers will tend to accept their children as they are, straight or gay. Whereas many men might be more inclined to see their children as a reflection of themselves, and so a gay male child might be a threat to their feeling of masculinity.

Women are far more aware of discrimination than men and so understanding injustice would be much more familiar to them.

These reasons, I believe, then explain the higher motivation among women to participate in the postal survey as they will be more committed to do something about the current situation.

And they will participate, as women are much less likely to 'forget' to fill out and return their survey forms, whereas for many men I am not so confident.

(Please Note: This illustration below is NOT the official ballot from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, but it is quite lovely). 



Nothing, of course, is certain.

However, these research findings suggest that there is a very good probability that the same sex marriage survey will be carried in favour of changing the law.




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