Dateline: Australia, Federal Politics, The State of Play June 2018.
This is how the polling numbers stand.
The key points are:
The Coalition has suffered a swing of 5.14% against its primary vote from the 2016 election to now stand at 36.9%.
The ALP has gained 1.77% on its primary vote from the 2016 election to now stand at 36.5%.
The Greens are effectively level with its primary vote from the 2016 election to stand at 10.3%.
One Nation has gained 6.7% on its primary vote to now stand at 8%
The Others Group has lost 3.4% of its primary vote from the 2016 election to now stand at 8.3%.
In Two Party Preferred terms, the Coalition has suffered a 2.9% swing against it since the 2016 election to now stand at 47.5%. In a uniform swing that would see the Coalition lose 12 seats from its notionally held 75 giving the ALP 83 seats and an election victory (this assumes 5 seats stay with non-major party candidates).
Primary Votes as at June 2018 %
Party
|
2016 Election %
|
Current Polls %
|
Change
|
L-NP
|
42.04
|
36.9
|
(-5.14)
|
ALP
|
34.73
|
36.5
|
+1.77
|
Greens
|
10.23
|
10.3
|
+0.07
|
One Nation
|
1.3
|
8
|
+6.7
|
Others
|
11.7
|
8.3
|
(-3.4)
|
Two Party Preferred Votes as at June 2018 %
Party
|
2016 Election %
|
Current Polls %
|
Change
|
L-NP
|
50.4
|
47.5
|
(-2.9)
|
ALP
|
49.6
|
52.5
|
+2.9
|
(click on image to see enlarged graph)
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