The School of Athens

The School of Athens
The School of Athens by Raphael (click on picture to view short documentary from Columbia University)

Wednesday, 1 November 2017

The State of Play: Déjà vu all over again

Colleagues and scholars from coast to coast, across Bass Strait and all the ships at sea.

Dateline: Australia, Federal Politics, Polling.

As at the end of October 2017, this is how the polling numbers compare to the final polls under Tony Abbott.

The key points are:

The Coalition's primary vote is at 35.5% (2.5% lower than when Abbott was last Prime Minister).

The ALP's primary vote is at 37% (0.2% lower than when Abbott was last Prime Minister).

The Greens' primary vote is at 10% (3.6% lower than when Abbott was last Prime Minister).

The Others Group primary vote is at 17.5% (6.3% higher than when Abbott was last Prime Minister). One Nation accounts for 8% of that Others' 17.5%.

In Two Party Preferred terms, the Coalition's vote is at 46.2% (essentially in the same position as when Abbott was last Prime Minister).

In pure two party preferred numbers, when Malcolm Turnbull replaced Tony Abbott as Prime Minister about 1,000,000 voters switched from the ALP to the Coalition.

Now those voters have all switched back.

What goes around...


Primary votes as at end October 2017 %

Party
Last Polls Abbott
Current Polls Turnbull
Change
Coalition
38
35.5
(-2.5)
ALP
37.2
37
(-0.2)
Greens
13.6
10
(-3.6)
Others
11.2
17.5
+6.3


Two party preferred votes as at end October 2017 %
 
Party
Last Polls Abbott
Current Polls Turnbull
Change
Coalition
46.3
46.2
(-0.1)
ALP
53.7
53.8
+0.1



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