Andrew Catsaras: Independent analysis and observations of Australian politics: The State of Play: He's not the Messiah, he's a very naughty boy

Thursday, 26 November 2015

The State of Play: He's not the Messiah, he's a very naughty boy

Colleagues and scholars from coast to coast, across Bass Strait and all the ships at sea.

Dateline: Australia, Federal Politics, Polling since Malcolm Turnbull became Prime Minister.

This is how the polling numbers stand, ten weeks since the elevation of Malcolm Turnbull to the Liberal leadership and, therefore, as Prime Minister.

The key points are:

The Coalition has enjoyed a 8.1% increase in its primary vote from when Tony Abbott was last Prime Minister, to now stand at 46.1% (0.5% higher than it achieved at the 2013 election).

The ALP has lost 6.1% of its primary vote to now stand at 31.1% (2.3% lower than it achieved at the 2013 election).

The Greens have lost 1.2% of its primary vote to now stand at 12.4% (3.7% higher than at the 2013 election).

The Others Group have lost 0.8% of its primary vote to now stand at 10.4% (1.9% lower than at the 2013 election).

In Two Party Preferred terms, the Coalition has achieved a 7.4% swing towards it since the elevation of Malcolm Turnbull to now stand at 53.7%. 0.2% above what it achieved in the 2013 election.

The Turnbull turnaround has been profound and for now, at least, complete.

In a neat twist, in two party preferred terms, the Coalition stands exactly where the ALP was prior to the removal of Tony Abbott.

In pure numbers, this two party preferred swing since the change of leader translates to about 1,100,000 voters having switched from the ALP to the Coalition.

"And seeing the multitudes, he went up into a mountain" Matthew 5:7