Colleagues and scholars from coast to coast, across Bass Strait and all the ships at sea.
Dateline: Australia, Federal Politics, Polling Payoff, July 2015.
Today, July 7, marks two months since the Federal Government brought down its 2015 Budget.
It also marks a period of concerted effort from the Prime Minister to focus on national security issues.
So has there been an improvement in the Government's polling fortunes as a result?
Well, the short answer is: no. In fact, it's worsened.
In two party preferred terms, the Coalition's position has declined from 47.9% prior to the Budget to now measure at 47.5%. The ALP has increased from 52.1% to now measure at 52.5%.
This represents a swing of 6.0% and if replicated in an election would see the ALP winning 26 seats from the Coalition: placing them on 81 seats, the Coalition on 65 seats (which includes winning back Fairfax), 3 Independents (Indi, Denison and Kennedy) and 1 Green in Melbourne.
Polls prior to Budget
In primary vote terms:
The Coalition's primary vote is unchanged at 40.1%. This represents a 5.5% swing against the Govt since the 2013 election.
The ALP's primary vote has come off (0.3%), now sitting on 37.2%. This represents a 3.8% swing to the ALP since the 2013 election.
The Greens primary vote has increased by 1.4%, now sitting on 12.8%. This represents a 4.1% swing to the Greens since the 2013 election.
The Others group combined primary vote has decreased by (1.1%), now sitting on 9.9%. This represents a 2.4% swing away since the 2013 election.