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Tuesday, 7 July 2015

Budget 2015 and National Security: The polling payoff.

Colleagues and scholars from coast to coast, across Bass Strait and all the ships at sea.

Dateline: Australia, Federal Politics, Polling Payoff, July 2015.

Today, July 7, marks two months since the Federal Government brought down its 2015 Budget. 



It also marks a period of concerted effort from the Prime Minister to focus on national security issues.


So has there been an improvement in the Government's polling fortunes as a result?

Well, the short answer is: no. In fact, it's worsened.

In two party preferred terms, the Coalition's position has declined from 47.9% prior to the Budget to now measure at 47.5%. The ALP has increased from 52.1% to now measure at 52.5%.

This represents a swing of 6.0% and if replicated in an election would see the ALP winning 26 seats from the Coalition: placing them on 81 seats, the Coalition on 65 seats (which includes winning back Fairfax), 3 Independents (Indi, Denison and Kennedy) and 1 Green in Melbourne.


Two Party Preferred as at 7 July 2015 %

Party
Polls prior to Budget
Current Polls
Change
Coalition
47.9
47.5
(-0.4)
ALP
52.1
52.5
+0.4 


In primary vote terms:

The Coalition's primary vote is unchanged at 40.1%. This represents a 5.5% swing against the Govt since the 2013 election.

The ALP's primary vote has come off (0.3%), now sitting on 37.2%. This represents a 3.8% swing to the ALP since the 2013 election.

The Greens primary vote has increased by 1.4%, now sitting on 12.8%. This represents a 4.1% swing to the Greens since the 2013 election.

The Others group combined primary vote has decreased by (1.1%), now sitting on 9.9%. This represents a 2.4% swing away since the 2013 election.


Primary Votes as at 7 July 2015 %

Party
Polls prior to Budget 
Current Polls
Change
Coalition
40.1
40.1
nil
ALP
37.5
37.2
(-0.3)
Greens
11.4
12.8
+1.4
Others
11.0
9.9
(-1.1)




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