The School of Athens

The School of Athens
The School of Athens by Raphael (click on picture to view short documentary from Columbia University)

Thursday, 18 December 2014

Extraordinary figures

Colleagues and scholars from coast to coast, across Bass Strait and all the ships at sea.

Dateline: Australia, Federal Politics, 2014.

Some extraordinary results were published by Essential Research this week regarding the public's opinion of the fate of the Government and Prime Minister just 16 months after a resounding election victory.

To the question of: "Which party do you think is most likely to win the next Federal Election due in 2016?"

Voters answered:

ALP
46%
Coalition
27%
Can’t say
27%


To the question of: "Do you think Tony Abbott is likely or unlikely to still be the leader of the Liberal Party at the next election?"

Voters answered: 
Likely
29%
Unlikely
51%
Don’t know
20%

These are disturbing results for the Government, and it's pretty clear the following tables illustrating the polling aggregate state of play as at December 2014 is the explanation.

Primary Votes as at December 2014

Party
Voting intention
2013 election
Change
Coalition
38.2
45.6
(-7.4)
ALP
39.0
33.4
+5.6
Greens
11.3
8.7
+2.6
Others
11.5
12.3
(-0.8)


Two Party Preferred as at December 2014

Party
Voting intention
2013 election
Change
Coalition
46.2
53.5
(-7.3)
ALP
53.8
46.5
+7.3


Quite a sobering set of numbers for the Government and Prime Minister to contemplate over the summer.

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