The School of Athens

The School of Athens
The School of Athens by Raphael (click on picture to view short documentary from Columbia University)

Monday, 27 August 2018

The Bastard, The Fool and The Delighted: The Liberal coup made no polling sense

Fellow citizens,

The Liberal Party coup made no sense from a polling perspective.

None.

The Coalition had been tracking back in the polls to becoming competitive and had every reason to think that by the time of the next election it would've had a reasonable chance of being returned.

Pre-coup, only the Ipsos Poll published a week ago (with the ALP leading 55-45) found anything different, and had not been confirmed by any other research.

Pre-coup, my view was that the ALP was more likely to win the next election but that this was not certain and, in any event, would've only ended up on 78-80 seats. Not a ringing endorsement nor a strong position for a first term government.

Now, who the Hell knows?

Today's Newspoll results (56-44 to the ALP) suggests there might be something very unpleasant in store for the Coalition at the next election.

While I don't see the ALP attracting such a two party vote, if the bastardy from Tony Abbott and his foolish sycophants continues then the ALP victory at the next election might well dwarf Bob Hawke's big win in 1983 (53.2% two party preferred) and a haul of 90 or more seats.

So, fellow citizens, I give you The Bastard and The Fool.



And The Delighted:

 


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