Colleagues and scholars from coast to coast, across Bass Strait and all the ships at sea.
Dateline: Australia, Federal Politics, Bill Shorten's impact on ALP polling, July 2015.
There has been a great deal of discussion lately about how Bill Shorten's dive in performance (as reflected in the satisfaction and approval ratings of pollsters) is a drag on the ALP's polling position.
So I thought it would be worthwhile to investigate the last 12 months of aggregated polls and see what the data revealed.
In summary, it shows that the polling performance of the ALP has remained reasonably consistent despite the changes in the ratings of Bill Shorten.
While there's no doubt the ALP and Bill Shorten would be delighted to see his personal numbers higher, it's voting intentions that matter in the end.
This table shows the three month averages:
|
Three month average %
|
Aug – Oct 2014
|
Nov 2014 Jan 2015
|
Feb – Apr 2015
|
May – Jul 2015
|
|
Shorten Performance Index*
|
37
|
40
|
37
|
33
|
|
ALP Two Party Vote
|
52
|
54
|
54
|
52
|
|
ALP Primary Vote
|
37
|
39
|
39
|
37
|
*(Shorten Performance Index aggregates the leader satisfaction ratings of Newspoll and the leader approval ratings of Ipsos and Essential)
This graph illustrates the last 12 month period (click on graph to see enlarged version):
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