Colleagues and scholars from coast to coast, across Bass Strait and all the ships at sea.
Dateline: Australia, Federal Politics, June 2015.
This is how the polling numbers stand as at June 2015.
The key points are:
The Coalition has suffered a 5.4% primary vote swing and a 6.0% two party preferred swing since the 2013 election. If replicated in an election this would result in a loss of about 26 seats, placing the Coalition on 65 seats (which includes winning back Fairfax) the ALP on 81 seats, 3 Independents (Indi, Denison and Kennedy) and 1 Green (Melbourne).
Since the 2013 election the Coalition has not polled above its two party preferred election result of 53.5% and has not polled above 50% since November 2013. In the last 19 months the Coalition has trailed the ALP by an average of 5 points (52.5% to 47.5%).
Primary Votes as at June 2015 %
Party
|
Voting intention
|
2013 election
|
Change
|
Coalition
|
40.2
|
45.6
|
(-5.4)
|
ALP
|
37.5
|
33.4
|
+4.1
|
Greens
|
12.5
|
8.7
|
+3.8
|
Others
|
9.8
|
12.3
|
(-2.5)
|
Two Party Preferred as at June 2015 %
Party
|
Voting intention
|
2013 election
|
Change
|
Coalition
|
47.5
|
53.5
|
(-6.0)
|
ALP
|
52.5
|
46.5
|
+6.0
|
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